Bitcoin Market Analysis, Tuesday, March 12, 2019.

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Today we look at the Bitcoin market analysis. Currently, Bitcoin is heading towards historical resistance level that caused some of the largest price drops during the current bear market. From the macro market perspective, there are two very likely scenarios and one not so much.

  1. Bullish scenario – We break the resistance and head towards the previous accumulation zone (Highlighted blue box with green arrow). To break this resistance we need high buying volume which in the current market state is highly unlikely. However, there are factors that might act as a catalysator for bullish move initiation (See further text). If the accumulation zone is broken, afterward the bull market is most likely to be ignited. This is a really unlikely event.
  2. Bearish scenario – Heading towards resistance will most likely trigger fast 1-2 candle drop to previous historical accumulation zone. We cannot know how the price will react to further levels. Because there is no historical data that supports any predictions in such market conditions regarding volume and exposure.
  3. Accumulation scenario –  This scenario is the most unlikely one because the resistance line historically has proven to cause rapid movements. Going sideways through resistance like this on such a high timeframe is the most unlikely event. The only viable option would be a small breakout that leads to a retest of the resistance and results in accumulation.

Overall market state: Bullish 30% / Bearish 60% / Sideways 10%

A catalyst for a bullish scenario is recently widely seen bitcoin halving. Halving basically means inflation decrease. Bitcoin block reward will decrease, meaning that less bitcoins are emitting every day which results in a price increase. Closer the halving gets, historically, the more market shifts to a bullish sentiment. Right now we are at the proportional historical point where time until halving/bitcoin price makes a reversal move.